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28-Feb-2017 04:24

The fact that the satellites and radiosondes – two very different types of measurement system — tend to agree with each other gives us somewhat more confidence in their result that warming has been much less than predicted by climate models.

In other words, variations in global average temperature are expected to be magnified with height, say through the lowest 10 km of atmosphere.

Temperatures of the deep ocean, which I will not address in detail, have warmed by amounts so small — hundredths of a degree — that it is debatable whether they are accurate enough to be of much use. There are different possibilities for the disagreement: 1) Surface thermometer analyses are spuriously overestimating the true temperature trend 2) Satellites and radiosondes are spuriously underestimating the true temperature trend 3) All data are largely correct, and are telling us something new about how the climate system operates under long-term warming.

Sea surface temperatures, also indicating modest warming in recent decades, involve an entirely new set of problems, with rather sparse sampling by a mixture of bucket temperatures from many years ago, to newer ship engine intake temperatures, buoys, and since the early 1980s infrared satellite measurements. Since 1979, it is generally accepted that the satellites and radiosondes measure 50% less of a warming trend than the surface thermometer data do, rather than 30-50% greater warming trend that theory predicts for warming aloft versus at the surface. First let’s look at the fundamental basis for each measurement.

Other technologies, such as GPS satellite based methods have limited record length and have not yet gained wide acceptance for accuracy.

While the thermometers measure near-surface temperature, the satellites and radiosondes measure the average temperature of a deep layer of the lower atmosphere.Instead, many years ago, mercury-in-glass or alcohol-in-glass thermometers were commonly used, where the thermal expansion of a column of liquid in response to temperature was estimated by eye.These measurements have now largely been replaced with thermistors, which measure the resistance to the flow of electricity, which is also temperature-dependent.S., it was found that by comparison the official U. Whether such problem exist with other countries data remains to be seen.

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