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17-May-2017 22:42

They argue that the good a doctor does by treating illnesses is minimal compared to the good she can do by earning to give.

Their reasoning goes like this: the average doctor saves 4 QALYs a year through medical interventions.

The value of the earning to give is so much higher then the value of the actual doctoring that you might as well skip the doctoring entirely and go into whatever earns you the most money. That’s something where you’re saving lots of lives, so it must be a good altruistic career choice.” But then when you pull numbers out of your ass, it turns out not to be.

Crucially, exactly which numbers you pull out of your ass doesn’t matter much as long as they’re remotely believable.

He writes – and I am editing liberally to keep it short, so be sure to read the whole thing: Nick Bostrom — the Oxford philosopher who popularized the concept of existential risk — estimates that about 10^54 human life-years (or 10^52 lives of 100 years each) could be in our future if we both master travel between solar systems and figure out how to emulate human brains in computers.

Even if we give this 10^54 estimate “a mere 1% chance of being correct,” Bostrom writes, “we find that the expected value of reducing existential risk by a mere one billionth of one billionth of one percentage point is worth a hundred billion times as much as a billion human lives.” Put another way: The number of future humans who will never exist if humans go extinct is so great that reducing the risk of extinction by 0.00000000000000001 percent can be expected to save 100 billion more lives than, say, preventing the genocide of 1 billion people.

He intuitively thinks that x-risk charities can’t be that great compared to fighting global poverty or whatever other good cause.

He (very virtuously) decides to double-check that assumption with numbers, even if he has to make up the numbers himself.

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There is much to challenge in it, and some has already been challenged by people like Ryan Carey. But for now I want to discuss a specific argument of Matthews’.But that depends exactly how small the chance of your anti-x-risk plan working is. Or second, that despite our best efforts, a research institute completes an unfriendly superintelligence.He gives two different possibilities which, if you count the zeroes, turn out to be 10^-17 and 10^-66. They are seconds away from running the program for the first time when, just as the lead researcher’s finger hovers over the ENTER key, a tornado roars into the laboratory. There he is struck by a meteorite hurtling through the upper atmosphere, which knocks him onto the rooftop of a nearby building.The average doctor’s salary is 0,000 or so; if she donates 10% to charity, that’s ,000.

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As per Givewell, that kind of money could save 300 QALYs per year.

The AI risk movement generally agrees, and neither depends on it nor uses it very often.